Midterm elections are almost always bad for the president’s party. Sometimes they are very bad for the president’s party. And every so often they are historically bad.
The first outcome seems guaranteed on Tuesday. Republicans are increasingly wary of the second. And more Democrats are daring to dream of the third.
Late polling mostly provides Democrats reason for optimism. Attitudes toward the president have become the most important factor shaping midterm outcomes, and President Donald Trump’s approval rating today is much lower than in 2018 when Republicans lost over 40 House seats; it’s well below the levels of Barack Obama, George W. Bush and Bill Clinton before their parties suffered major midterm losses. Surveys in the campaign’s final days have found Democrats showing strength in states that Republicans have long dominated, including Texas, Ohio, and even Kansas and South Carolina.
