At face value, it’s not all that complicated.
President Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress were elected in November 2024 to fix the economy. Now it’s November 2026, and Americans feel even worse about it than they did two years ago.
So, it’s the economy, stupid.
But with respect to James Carville, it’s not quite that simple.
America’s economy is in surprisingly good shape. Unemployment is low – low enough for economists to consider the US economy to be at “full employment.” Overall consumer spending, the bedrock of America’s economy, has remained mostly resilient. And the AI revolution has revved an economic engine so powerful it’s projected to become the largest spending boom in modern US history.
