The humble cactus is an icon of resiliency. Stuck in a desert with little rain and abundant searing sun, these plants don’t just survive, they thrive—and in turn provide habitat for owls and other birds, and flowers for bats and other pollinators.

Yet cacti are in serious trouble, due to habitat loss and the poaching of species for private collections. Now we can add worsening droughts to those woes, according to a new study in the journal Nature. Researchers modeled a future of not just relentlessly rising temperatures but also the attendant dry spells, finding that the majority of nearly 1,000 cactus species will lose habitat as the climate radically changes. More than a quarter of those species could lose at least 80 percent of that habitat by 2100.